of the banking sector in 2024 in the context france telegram data of the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy?
— This year, the pace of lending will most likely slow down: companies are adjusting their plans taking into account more expensive credit funds. The corporate portfolio may grow by about 6–11%. We also expect a slowdown in retail. In order to limit the indebtedness of individuals, we have consistently tightened macroprudential regulation:
Increased premiums for risky loans, and in unsecured
lending we have also set limits on their issuance. In addition, the government has tightened the conditions for issuing mortgages with state support. As a result, we expect that consumer loans will grow by 3–8% this year, and mortgages — by 7–12%. This is significantly less than last year, but this is adequate, balanced growth that does not threaten to overheat the market.
— And the financial result?
—We expect profit to be slightly below last year’s record
— at the level of RUB 2.3–2.8 trillion. Firstly, we believe that as assets and liabilities are revalued taking into account higher rates, as well as due to the need to restore the values of the short-term liquidity coverage ratio (SCR), for which we have follow the entire series infographic day cancelled the relaxations, the net interest margin will decrease to 4.0–4.4% from 4.7% in 2023. Secondly, we expect loan reserves to grow due to the fact that there will no longer be a significant release of “re-reserved” loans in 2022, as well as due to the gradual “maturation” of restructured loans ao lists and loans issued in the last year or two to borrowers with a high debt burden ratio. In addition, we do not include in the forecast profit from currency revaluation, which was a significant factor in 2023.
