with endless plugging of holes in the netherlands telegram data currency market? Wouldn’t it be simpler to just set a fix ruble exchange rate. And it would be easier for everyone.
We would all like to live in a world where we know everything in advance and there are no surprises. But that is not how the world we live in works.
The rate that is optimal for the economy
today may be harmful to it tomorrow if circumstances change. For example, if the rate in 2022 was fix and we did not allow it to strengthen, we would have seen an even greater increase in the prices of import goods, more serious supply disruptions. The economy would be worse off because of this, its adaptation would be slower.
The second, no less, and perhaps even more important
point: the fix exchange rate must be somehow maintain. After all, if less currency is coming in, as last year, then imports should also decrease by the same amount. But with a fix exchange rate, this does not happen. Where can we get the missing currency? Either increase the external debt, or take it from the reserves. The first is more difficult now. And the second are obviously limit. Then what happens? If we maintain the exchange rate with continuous currency interventions (large sales of currency for rubles, – .), then everyone immiately understands: we ne to have time to exchange our rubles for currency before the reserves run out, since then the currency will definitely devalue. Everyone will line up for currency. And always display an odd number of pricing plans: as a result, the reserves will be deplet even faster. That is, maintaining a fix exchange rate is very risky. And in conditions of external restrictions – even reckless. Here we can recall 1998, and 2008, and 2014 in our country. And very recent examples of some other countries (Türkiye, Argentina – .), where the flywheel of inflation and devaluation has accelerat even more, despite the ao lists authorities’ attempts to restrain its weakening at the expense of reserves.
